FameEX Weekly Market Trend | February 19, 2024

1. Market Trend

From Feb. 15 to Feb. 18, the BTC price swung from $50,642.85 to $52,572.08, with a volatility of3.81%. The prior analysis report mentioned the following: operationally, it is advisable to purchase at low prices and wait for the market to turn around, embracing the new upward trend. During the Spring Festival, the cryptocurrency market, particularly on Valentine’s Day, surged past the $52,000 psychological barrier, imbuing the holiday with romantic undertones. Earlier reports emphasized the significance of the $43,000 psychological barrier. Once broken and stabilized, it will inevitably open up a new upward trend. On February 7, BTC broke through $43,000 with strong volume and stabilized above $44,000 (there was no retracement that day, and the daily candlestick formed a bald-headed pattern, reflecting the market’s consistent momentum). Hence, BTC is poised to surpass $50,000, with the current price near $52,400, urging caution at this level.

1. The current cumulative increase is too high.

2. There’s a divergence between the daily and 4-hour candlestick patterns (KDJ & Bollinger Bands indicators).

3. The price is significantly deviating from the moving averages.

4. Despite breaking new highs along the way, there hasn’t been significant volume, even when surpassing the $50,000 psychological barrier. This is a potential danger signal.

In the current trend, there needs to be a certain depth of pullback to eliminate the current hidden risks and establish a solid foundation. The 4-hour MA120 moving average is currently around $47,500, but this level constitutes a relatively deep pullback, and the price may not necessarily reach it. However, I consider a pullback essential at this stage. Therefore, it’s not advisable to aggressively enter long positions in the market. Patience is key; wait for opportunities to buy at lower prices (gradually entering around $48,500).

Source: BTCUSDT | Binance Spot 

Between Feb. 15 and Feb. 18, the price of ETH/BTC fluctuated between 0.05301 and 0.05498, a 3.72% range. Prior advice suggested waiting for BTC to lead a turnaround before reassessing ETH/BTC above the resistance level at 0.05650, noting BTC’s driving force in the rise but its limited standalone momentum and slightly mismatched trading volume and price increase. Currently, no additional positions will be added. The trend of ETH/BTC has not yet reached our desired entry point (0.05650). It is recommended to still hold positions bought at 0.05400. Given the potential retracement in BTC, trading activities related to ETH/BTC are not being considered at the moment. Further trading plans will be made once the market situation becomes clearer.

Source: ETHBTC | Binance Spot 

Based on overall analysis, the current market is experiencing a net inflow of funds (ETF products are favored by large capital, performing well), providing ample fuel for BTC to break the $50,000 mark and continue its upward trajectory (although trading volume is noticeably insufficient). Next, BTC may undergo retracement or sideways movement, with the latter involving trading time for space and repairing basic indicators. If the market opts for sideways movement instead of pullback, altcoins could see increased activity. Those with available funds may consider investing in quality altcoins to prevent missing out while setting stop-loss positions. Operationally, it's wise to prioritize buying mainstream coins at lower prices and patiently await BTC’s next move, following the trend.

The Bitcoin Ahr999 index of 1.13 is between the buy-the-dip level ($32,580) and the DCA level ($53,210). Therefore, it is advised to purchase popular coins via DCA.

Source: OKLink

2. Perpetual Futures

In general, the 7-day cumulative funding rates for the popular coins across major exchanges are positive, indicating that long leverages are relatively high.

Source: coinsoto

In the recent period, the BTC contract open interest remained unchanged, contrasting with a decrease in open interest for ETH contracts after an initial uptrend.

Exchange BTC Contract Open Interest:

Source: coinsoto

Exchange ETH Contract Open Interest:

Source: coinsoto

3. Industry Roundup

1) On February 15, according to Sun Yuchen, Tron officially announced its roadmaps for the Bitcoin Layer 2 initiative.

2) On February 15, Ethereum restaking protocol EigenLayer TVL exceeded $7 billion.

3) On February 15, BITB asset management scale surpassed $1 billion.

4) On February 16, Federal Reserve Board member Woller remarked that stablecoins pegged to the dollar have the potential to bolster the global influence of the dollar.

5) On February 16, Coinbase’s Q4 2023 revenue reached $9.538 billion, beyond analyst expectations.

6) On February 16, BlackRock IBIT held nearly 110,000 Bitcoins.

7) On February 17, Coinbase surged 15%, reaching its highest point in nearly two years.

8) On February 17, Bloomberg reported that US prosecutors urged a judge to accept Binance’s plea agreement.

9) On February 18, the total market value of AI-related cryptocurrencies exceeded $12 billion.

10) On February 18, PANDORA NFT sales totaled $100 million.

Disclaimer: FameEX makes no representations on the accuracy or suitability of any official statements made by the exchange regarding the data in this area or any related financial advice.