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FameEX Weekly Market Trend | June 3, 2024
2024-06-03 19:31:15
1. BTC Market Trend
From May 30 to June 2, the BTC price swung from $66,686.74 to $69,448.86, a 4.14% range. Recently, the key statements from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) are as follows:
1) On May 30, Fed’s Bostic stated that the fourth quarter may be the right time to cut interest rates.
2) On May 31, the Fed’s “third-in-command” declared that the monetary policy was in the right place.
3) On May 31, based on Fed’s Williams, the rapid decline in U.S. inflation in 2023 is driven by “special factors”, and rates can be cut without inflation reaching 2%. PCE inflation is expected to slow to 2.5% in 2024 and approach 2% in 2025. Monetary policy is restrictive, and recent progress in reducing inflation has been insufficient.
4) On May 31, Fed’s Bostic didn’t expect a rate cut in July but would remain open-minded if data proves it necessary.
5) On May 31, the ECB’s Centeno said that May inflation was slightly above expectations, potentially paving the way for an easing cycle.
The U.S. SEC has approved an Ethereum spot ETF, raising expectations of substantial capital inflows. On June 2, JPMorgan warned that these hopes might be overly optimistic compared to Bitcoin spot ETFs. JPMorgan analysts outlined several reasons for their cautious outlook. They highlighted Bitcoin’s “first-mover advantage” and recent halving event as key demand catalysts for Bitcoin ETFs, which Ethereum lacks. Analysts noted that Ethereum’s PoS mechanism doesn’t provide a similar demand boost, emphasizing that Bitcoin’s halving event acts as an additional demand catalyst for Bitcoin spot ETFs. Furthermore, JPMorgan pointed out that the removal of staking from Ethereum spot ETF applications decreases their attractiveness compared to platforms offering staking yields. Bitcoin’s status as a competitor to gold in portfolio allocation further increases its demand over Ethereum, which is primarily seen as an application token. Additionally, Ethereum’s lower liquidity reduces its appeal to hedge funds and quant funds.
In May, most indicators in the cryptocurrency market declined. On-chain transaction volume for Bitcoin and Ethereum fell to $390 billion, stablecoin on-chain transaction volume dropped by 20.5%, Bitcoin miner revenue decreased by 46%, Ethereum staking revenue rose by 4.1%, NFT market trading volume fell by 27.8%, and spot trading volume on centralized exchanges declined by 22.5%. In futures, Bitcoin futures open interest increased by 12.9%, Ethereum futures open interest hit a record high while trading volume dropped by 21%. CME Bitcoin futures open interest rose by 15.9%, daily average trading volume fell by 9%, and monthly average trading volume for Ethereum futures rose slightly by 0.2%. Bitcoin and Ethereum options open interest rebounded, with trading volumes of $46.8 billion and $31.4 billion, respectively, with Ethereum options trading volume reaching an all-time high.
On Wednesday, June 5, the U.S. May ADP employment numbers will be released, followed by the U.S. May unemployment rate and May seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll data on Friday, June 7.
From June 3 to June 5, global asset trends are difficult to gauge, with a slight chance of decline in assets such as US stocks, gold, and European stocks that are positively correlated. However, overall fundamental news leans towards being favorable. The market’s short-term direction may be determined after the release of the US May unemployment rate and nonfarm payroll data on Friday, June 7. Thus, it is viable to keep an eye on trading opportunities for the ETH spot, focusing on sell orders around $4,700, buy orders around $3,460, and for the BTC spot, sell orders at $72,500 and buy orders at $54,050.
According to the ahr999 coin hoarding indicator, the current indicator value for BTC is 1.14, which is below the DCA level ($69,560) but above the buy-the-dip level ($42,590). Therefore, it is advisable to continue dollar-cost averaging into ETH.
2. Perpetual Futures
In general, the 7-day cumulative funding rates for the popular coins across major exchanges are positive, indicating that long leverages are relatively high.
Recently, the contract open interest for both BTC and ETH has been flat.
Exchange BTC Contract Open Interest:
Exchange ETH Contract Open Interest:
Note: All the above information is provided for reference purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment advice.
3. Industry Roundup
1) On May 30, sources revealed that the Biden campaign team has shifted its stance and begun engaging with key figures in the crypto industry.
2) On May 30, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 25 were 219,000, slightly above the expected 218,000. This news is bullish for gold, silver, and cryptocurrencies.
3) On May 30, the euro area’s April unemployment rate was 6.4%, slightly below the expected 6.5% and previous value of 6.5%. This news is also bullish for gold, silver, and cryptocurrencies.
4) On May 30, the US allowed Ukraine to use US weapons to combat Russia within its borders. The EU is expected to start negotiations for Ukraine’s accession by the end of this month.
5) On May 30, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) announced the launch of index options tracking Bitcoin spot prices.
6) On May 30, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland appointed Beth Hammack, formerly of Goldman Sachs, as its next president.
7) On May 30, the Fed’s Beige Book reported continued economic expansion nationwide from early April to mid-May. However, conditions varied across industries and regions, with moderate price increases reported during the period.
8) On May 30, Vitalik revealed some regrets about Ethereum’s initial design, including the development of the Ethereum Virtual Machine, smart contracts, and the PoS consensus mechanism.
9) On May 30, the Financial Times reported a surge in interest in European Bitcoin spot ETFs this year, though it has yet to translate into actual capital inflows.
10) On May 31, the US core PCE price index for April recorded a monthly rate of 0.2%, the lowest since December 2023. This news is bullish for gold, silver, and cryptocurrencies. After the release of PCE data, pricing in the interest rate swap market remained stable, with the Fed expected to cut rates at least once by 2024.
11) On May 31, the eurozone’s initial estimate for the May CPI annual rate was 2.6%, slightly above the expected 2.5% and the previous value of 2.40%. The eurozone's May CPI monthly rate was 0.2%, in line with expectations of 0.20% but lower than the previous value of 0.60%.
12) On May 31, the SEC issued an investor alert, focusing on five common cryptocurrency scams.
13) On May 31, the president of NYSE Group stated that the liquidity provided by Bitcoin ETFs is indisputable.
14) On May 31, Europol launched a large-scale operation against the ecosystem of malicious software distributors.
15) On May 31, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority reported cases of criminals using the digital Hong Kong dollar pioneer scheme for fraud.
16) On May 31, the US presidential candidate Robert Kennedy said Bitcoin could help fulfill promises and avoid wars, and he purchased 21 bitcoins.
17) On June 1, FTX sold its remaining Anthropic shares at a bankruptcy cost exceeding $700 million.
18) On June 1, Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele, a supporter of Bitcoin, began his second term in office.
19) On June 1, the Trump-themed meme coin MAGA (TRUMP) broke $16.3, reaching a market cap of over $736 million.
20) On June 1, ENS domain registrations in May exceeded 28,000, with a total of nearly 850,000 domains.
21) On June 2, Velocore reported that any messages offering refunds and directing users to external links or asking users to contact them via private messages/email are scams, and affected users will be compensated.
22) On June 2, foreign media reported that Trump accepted campaign donations via the Bitcoin Lightning Network.
23) On June 2, Biden emphasized the necessity of appropriate safeguards for consumers and investors regarding the potential benefits and opportunities of using crypto assets for innovation.
24) On June 2, Biden trailed Trump by 32% to 44% among non-college-educated voters and by 33% to 38% among voters from households with incomes below $50,000.
25) On June 6, it was reported next week, GAL, HFT, LQTY, and EUL would see unlocks totaling approximately $12 million.
Disclaimer: FameEX makes no representations on the accuracy or suitability of any official statements made by the exchange regarding the data in this area or any related financial advice.
