FameEX Weekly Market Trend | July 20, 2023

1. Market Trend

Between July 17 and July 19, the BTC price fluctuated between $29,512.00 and $30,403.13, with a volatility of 3.01%. Based on the 1-hour candle chart, after failing to break above $32,000, BTC’s price lacked upward momentum. Usually, in the past 20 days, such failures led to a consolidation phase before another attempt to move higher. However, the price is currently being suppressed by the 7-day moving average (MA), and the trading volume has been relatively low. BTC has been oscillating around $30,000 ($30,000 is no longer acting as a support level). Although the overall price is still within the range mentioned earlier ($29,500-$31,500), the recent BTC movements indicate market weakness. The recent lowest point coincidentally touched the lower edge of the range near $29,500. With BTC’s decreasing volatility and repeated testing of the range’s edges, this often signals an impending directional move. Until a substantial breakthrough occurs (either upward or downward), it is advised to follow the previously mentioned methods and focus on support and resistance levels around the edges of the range for additional analysis.

Source: BTCUSDT | Binance Spot 

Between July 17 and July 19, the price of ETH/BTC fluctuated within a range of 0.06303-0.06387, showing a 1.33% fluctuation. From the 1-hour chart, ETH/BTC has maintained the strong momentum mentioned earlier. However, with BTC showing weakness, ETH/BTC has dropped below the 7-day MA on both the 1-hour and 4-hour timeframes, and the MAs are also showing a downward trend, accompanied by decreasing trading volume. This might be signaling a potential shift to a weaker trend. In the past few days, ETH/BTC exhibited a strong upward trend compared to BTC, but the current trend has changed, and it is now following BTC’s price movements. If BTC experiences a decline, ETH/BTC is likely to experience a correction. Therefore, it is advised to be cautious and patient at this moment and wait for the market to make its move before taking any significant actions.

Source: ETHBTC | Binance Spot 

Based on overall analysis, the market trading appears to be rather subdued, with most cryptocurrencies experiencing reduced volatility and a significant decline in trading volume. There seems to be a lack of sufficient funds from participants, which is closely related to the movement of BTC. At present, BTC is trading within an extremely narrow range, near the lower edge of its price range. In this situation, the best course of action is to exercise patience and wait for the market to indicate its direction before making any reasonable trading decisions.

The Bitcoin Ahr999 index of 0.65 is above the buy-the-dip level ($25,080) but below the DCA level ($40,960). It is viable to purchase popular coins through DCA.

Source: OKLink

From the perspective of MVRV Z-Score, the value is 0.68. When the value is greater than 6, it enters the market tops, while a value below 2 indicates that it enters the market bottoms. Currently, the present value exceeds the buy-the-dip range (-0.33-0.17).

Source: coinsoto

2. Perpetual Futures

In general, the 7-day cumulative funding rates for the popular coins across major exchanges are positive, indicating that long leverages are relatively high.

Source: coinsoto

Between July 17 and July 19, the contract open interest of BTC and ETH almost remained unchanged from major exchanges.

Exchange BTC Contract Open Interest:

Source: coinsoto

Exchange ETH Contract Open Interest:

Source: coinsoto

3. Industry Roundup

1. 1) On July 17, according to SlowMist, Web3 suffered approximately $2.65 million in losses due to security incidents in the past week.

2. 2) On July 17, the U.S. SEC initiated a review of recently submitted applications for Bitcoin ETFs.

3. 3) On July 17, the FSB called for stricter global cryptocurrency regulations.

4. 4) On July 18, Christopher Hui Ching-yu stated that the Hong Kong Monetary Authority would conduct a second round of public consultations on “stablecoins” within this year.

5. 5) On July 18, Ark Invest sold nearly 250,000 shares of Coinbase stock, worth approximately $26 million.

6. 6) On July 18th, data showed that Starknet’s total value locked (TVL) surpassed $100 million.

7. 7) On July 18, Shanxi police uncovered a money laundering case involving over 380 million yuan using USDT.

8. 8) On July 19, the probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve in July reached close to 100%.

9. 9) On July 19, the open interest in XRP futures contracts exceeded $1.1 billion.

10. 10) On July 19, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority held a second meeting with financial industry executives, emphasizing the need to comply with regulations for virtual asset companies.

Disclaimer: FameEX makes no representations on the accuracy or suitability of any official statements made by the exchange regarding the data in this area or any related financial advice.