FameEX Weekly Market Trend | July 3, 2023

1. Market Trend

Between June 29 and July 2, the BTC price fluctuated between $29,500 and $31,282, with a volatility of 6.04%. Based on the 1-hour candle chart, the BTC price continued to consolidate above the $30,000 level as mentioned in the previous analysis report. It is worth noting that BTC has recently demonstrated two breakouts above the $31,000 resistance level, followed by retracements from reaching that point. Although it briefly dipped to around $29,500, BTC quickly recovered to $30,000 and has been trading above it since, indicating a strong bullish signal. Currently, BTC’s moving averages on the 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, and 1-day candle charts are all diverging upwards. The trend has stabilized above the 7-day moving average and steadily extended along the average (the closing prices of the past 5 days on the daily chart have all been above the 7-day moving average). Moreover, most other cryptos have also shown a consecutive bullish trend on the daily chart in recent days. Notably, BCH and LTC, as popular coins, have experienced significant rallies, reaching new highs in almost a year.

Source: BTCUSDT | Binance Spot 

Between June 29 and July 2, the price of ETH/BTC fluctuated within a range of 0.06052 to 0.06369, showing a 5.23% fluctuation. From the one-hour candlestick chart, the ETH/BTC pair experienced a volume surge, breaking through the previous downward channel and exceeding the 7-day moving average that had been suppressing it for nearly a month. On the daily chart, it also successfully closed above the 7-day moving average and stabilized. With the current bullish sentiment, ETH/BTC has likely established a bottom, but the extent of its upward movement still requires observation. At present, it is only probable that the downward trend has stopped. When dealing with this coin, it is still advisable to be cautious and adopt a more observant approach.

Source: ETHBTC | Binance Spot 

Based on overall analysis, the current bullish sentiment in the market is closely related to BTC’s persistent upward trend. Currently, the $30,000 level for BTC has become a strong technical support and a crucial point for investors. However,  unexpected events often occur in such situations, so investors must remain attentive and adhere to their trading rules. For those who have not entered the market, it is advisable to observe the breakthrough and stabilization of BTC at the $31,000 level before entering at an opportune moment.

The Bitcoin Ahr999 index of 0.72 is above the buy-the-dip level ($24,170) but below the DCA level ($39,470). It is viable to purchase popular coins through DCA.

Source: OKLink

From the perspective of MVRV Z-Score, the value is 0.71. When the value is greater than 6, it enters the market tops, while a value below 2 indicates that it enters the market bottoms. Currently, the present value exceeds the buying-the-dip range (-0.47-0.06).

Source: coinsoto

2. Perpetual Futures

In general, the 7-day cumulative funding rates for the popular coins across major exchanges are positive, indicating that long leverages are relatively high.

Source: coinsoto

The contract open interest of BTC experienced a slight decline, while there was a minor increase in the contract open interest of ETH from major exchanges.

Exchange BTC Contract Open Interest:

Source: coinsoto

Exchange ETH Contract Open Interest:

Source: coinsoto

3. Industry Roundup

1. 1) On June 29, the Bank of Italy stated that stablecoins have not been proven to be stable.

2. 2) On June 29, FTX CEO announced that the company has started soliciting interested parties to relaunch the FTX.com exchange.

3. 3) On June 29, Coinbase stated that the digital assets on their platform do not fall under the jurisdiction of the SEC.

4. 4) On June 30, the head of Australia’s Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC ) stated that they are building CBDC for use cases that have not been considered.

5. 5) On June 30, the Ethereum Name Service (ENS) announced plans to expand into the Layer2 ecosystem.

6. 6) On June 30, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand stated that cryptocurrencies require no regulatory measures currently.

7. 7) On July 1, data revealed that over 6 billion USD worth of BTC and ETH have been withdrawn from exchanges in May and June.

8. 8) On July 1, companies, such as Fidelity, Sampo, and VanEck, reapplied for spot Bitcoin ETFs.

9. 9) On July 2, Bitcoin ranked first among major global assets in the first half of the year, with a growth rate of 83.81%.

10. 10) On July 2, Poly Network announced that they have suspended their services and are actively communicating with stakeholders to assess the extent of affected assets.

Disclaimer: FameEX makes no representations on the accuracy or suitability of any official statements made by the exchange regarding the data in this area or any related financial advice.