FameEX Hot Topics | Bitcoin ETFs Poised to Surpass 1M BTC Amid Anticipated November Tailwinds

The United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are on the cusp of holding a collective 1 million Bitcoins, potentially reaching this milestone within the week as the crypto community anticipates favorable market conditions in November. These optimistic forecasts are buoyed by several key events, including the U.S. elections, potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, and Russia's decision to lift its Bitcoin mining ban.

Currently, US spot Bitcoin ETFs hold approximately 976,893 Bitcoins, valued at over $66.2 billion, representing nearly 5% of Bitcoin’s $1.34 trillion market capitalization, according to data from Apollo and SoSoValue. To achieve the 1 million Bitcoin milestone, these ETFs need an additional $1.55 billion in net inflows, which equates to purchasing roughly 23,107 Bitcoins at current prices. This requires an average of $301 million in daily net inflows throughout this week.

Recent trends have been promising, with Bitcoin analyst Alessandro Ottaviani reporting that $3 billion has flowed into these ETFs in the last two weeks alone. Ottaviani suggests that if such investment pace persists through November, reaching all-time highs (ATH) in Bitcoin’s value will be "inevitable." Historically, Bitcoin has shown a tendency to surge several months following a halving event, with the most recent occurring in April 2024. Additionally, the outcome of the November 5 U.S. presidential election could further catalyze Bitcoin’s value.

Reflecting on previous patterns, Bitcoin experienced a near 43% rally in November 2020 after the May 2020 halving and President Joe Biden’s election victory. Similar market movements could be expected this year, irrespective of the election winner, according to CK Zheng, chief investment officer at ZX Squared Capital.

Henrik Andersson, chief investment officer at Apollo Capital, emphasizes the potential impact of the U.S. presidential election outcome, particularly if Donald Trump wins. Andersson speculates that a Trump victory could propel Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by year-end, setting a significant new ATH and capturing global headlines.

Furthermore, the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting on November 6-7 is also pivotal, with the CME Group’s Fedwatch tool projecting a 94.7% likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut. Such rate adjustments typically relieve financial pressure on consumers and generally foster a positive impact on the markets, at least in the short term. This array of factors combines to set a potentially transformative period for Bitcoin and its stakeholders in the coming month.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for informational purposes only, doesn't represent any investment advice or FameEX's official view.