Ethereum Options Data Suggests Bears Are Plan to Maintain ETH Price Below $3.6K

$4 billion worth of Ethereum options are expiring on June 28, with significant attention centered around the $3,500 mark. 

Source: coinmuhendisi.com

Recent consolidation around this price has tempered expectations for a monthly close above $4,000. Initially, bulls were hopeful following a 23% surge on May 20, driven by optimism around a potential approval of a spot Ethereum ETF. However, Ethereum has struggled to sustain levels above $3,600 since then. Deribit will see $3.5 billion in monthly ETH options expiring on June 28, followed by $286 million at $142 million at exchanges. The ongoing SEC review of S1 filings for ETF approval further dampens bullish sentiment, diminishing the likelihood of ETH surpassing $4,000 at expiry.

Bears Did Not Anticipate Ethereum Surpassing the $3,000 Mark

Ether bulls were caught off guard by the delay between the regulatory approval of the spot ETF and its actual trading commencement, as confirmed by SEC Chair Gary Gensler. The timing of this approval, expected within the next three months, remains uncertain. Consequently, bullish expectations for the June 28 options expiry are subdued. In contrast, Ether bears experienced surprise following the resolution of a major regulatory concern on June 19, when the SEC concluded its investigation into Ether's classification as a security. A letter to Consensys clarified that Ether sales were no longer under scrutiny.

Deribit reports an open interest of $3.5 billion for the June 28 monthly options expiry. However, market sentiment suggests outcomes above $4,000 or below $3,000 are currently deemed unrealistic. The 0.62 put-to-call ratio indicates an imbalance, with $2.2 billion in call (buy) open interest versus $1.3 billion in put (sell) options. If Ether maintains its price around $3,500 at 8:00 am UTC on June 28, only $257 million of these put options will hold relevance. This disparity arises because the right to sell Ether at $3,300 or $3,400 becomes inconsequential if the price of ETH exceeds these levels at expiry.

Bulls Are Targeting $3,800 for a Potential $500 Million Gain

Based on the current options data, here are the summarized scenarios and potential outcomes for Ethereum's price leading up to the June 28 expiry. These scenarios suggest that the options market is positioned with varying biases depending on Ethereum's price range at expiry. Unless there is an unexpected approval of a spot ETF before June 28, the balance points towards a likely settlement of around $3,500. This outcome would generally favor the bearish sentiment, especially given Ether's recent trading above $3,800 just a couple of weeks earlier.

Disclaimer: FameEX makes no representations on the accuracy or suitability of any official statements made by the exchange regarding the data in this area or any related financial advice.