FameEX Weekly Market Trend | February 20, 2025

1. Key Insights on Crypto Market Trends

From February 17 to February 19, the BTC spot price swung from $93,395.78 to $97,463.73, a 4.36% range. 

Important Statements from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) in the Last Three Days

1) On February 17, Fed’s Logan indicated that a cooling of inflation doesn’t necessarily trigger a rate cut.

2) On February 18, Fed's Daly stated (when asked if there will be further rate cuts this year) that the world is full of uncertainty.

Harker suggested that current economic conditions support keeping the interest rate policy stable for now; monetary policy is in a good place.

Bowman stated that more confidence in inflation dropping is needed before another rate cut. Inflation is expected to decrease, but there are still upside risks.

Waller stated that the recent consumer price index was disappointing, but this may be a seasonal adjustment issue. Inflation is expected to continue falling, and rate cuts are expected this year.

3) On February 19, Fed’s Daly indicated that cryptocurrencies are an emerging industry and that innovation should not be suppressed out of fear.

Barr said that the Fed is experimenting with AI in a controlled manner.

Daly indicated that policies should remain restrictive until inflation shows significant progress.

According to Vice Chair Barr, the Fed takes a neutral stance on crypto.

4) On February 18, ECB’s Holzmann stated that supporting another rate cut decision is becoming increasingly difficult now and after March.

Fed officials have a mixed stance on further rate cuts this year, with two adopting a neutral-to-supportive stance on cryptocurrencies. ECB officials are leaning towards pausing rate cuts.

Based on a joint investigation by blockchain data platform Bubblemaps and popular YouTuber Coffeezilla, a trader using the alias Naseem made a profit of $109 million through “sniping” in TRUMP token trades. On-chain data shows that Naseem purchased tokens worth $1.09 million within the first second of TRUMP’s launch and paid $84,000 in priority transaction fees, then dispersed the funds across at least nine wallets. Bubblemaps noted that while insider trading cannot be fully confirmed, the high degree of correlation between multiple on-chain addresses is “hard to ignore”. Naseem denies receiving insider information and claims that his team deduced the launch time by observing interactions within the Meteora fund pool.

2. CMC 7D Statistics Indicators

Overall market cap and volume, source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/

Altcoin Season Index and Bitcoin Dominance: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/

Crypto ETFs Net Flow:https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/

CoinMarketCap 100 Index:https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/cmc100/

(Used to measure the overall performance of the top 100 cryptocurrency projects by market capitalization on CoinMarketCap)

Fear & Greed Index, source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/

Recently, the total market capitalization and trading volume of cryptocurrencies have continued to shrink, leading to a decline in market activity. The Altcoin Season Index shows that altcoins are also weakening, while Bitcoin’s market dominance has slightly increased, indicating that funds are still concentrating on major mainstream coins. ETF funds have experienced a continuous net outflow, reflecting a slight lack of market confidence. Meanwhile, the prices of mainstream coins and larger market-cap altcoins continue to fluctuate within a narrow range. Currently, the Fear and Greed Index stands at 40, on the verge of fear, indicating relatively low sentiment in the market.

3. Perpetual Futures

Source: CoinAnk

The 7-day cumulative funding rates for BTC and ETH on the top 8 exchanges are 0.3177% and 0.5464%, respectively, indicating a strong bullish sentiment across the market and that the expectation of a bull market remains.

Exchange BTC Contract Open Interest:

Source: CoinAnk

Exchange ETH Contract Open Interest:

Source: CoinAnk

In the past three days, the BTC contract open interest has slightly increased, while ETH has seen a more significant rise, indicating that market participants with a higher risk appetite are more inclined to favor short-term bullish trading opportunities in ETH and altcoins.

4. Global Economic and Crypto Sector Developments

Macroeconomic Data:

1) On February 17, the Fed’s overnight reverse repurchase agreement usage dropped to its lowest level since April 2021.

2) On February 18, the UK January unemployment rate was 4.59%, down from 4.60% previously. Its January jobless claims reached 22,000, revised from 7,000 to -15,100.

3) On February 18, Canada’s January CPI monthly rate was 0.1%, in line with expectations, up from -0.40% previously.

4) On February 19, the UK January CPI monthly rate was -0.1%, better than the expected -0.3%, down from 0.30% previously.

Cryptocurrency Industry Updates:

1) On February 17, institutional holdings of US Bitcoin spot ETFs for Q4 2024 increased by over 200% compared to Q3.

2) On February 17, CZ (Changpeng Zhao) stated that BTC is more of a reserve asset than a trading currency, with new funds buying ETFs but not reflected on-chain.

3) On February 17, a report revealed that the Bitcoin mining industry has created over 31,000 jobs in the US. Institutional investors hold 25.4% of US spot Bitcoin ETF assets, totaling $26.8 billion.

4) On February 17, Nasdaq proposed allowing the listing and trading of investment rights based on digital assets.

5) On February 18, Strategy announced the issuance of $2 billion in convertible bonds to support future Bitcoin purchases.

6) On February 18, it was reported that the former Tether CEO is developing the yield-bearing stablecoin project Pi Protocol, expected to launch in the second half of this year.

7) On February 18, Google announced it is investigating the use of “Google Login” for accessing Bitcoin wallets.

8) On February 19, the AI16Z founder announced unauthorized posts were made from his X account, warning against purchasing related tokens.

9) On February 19, CZ was reportedly involved in advising Elon Musk to implement blockchain technology to replace traditional paper tickets, aiming to cut costs for the U.S. Treasury Department.

10) On February 19, Mastercard’s crypto business leader revealed that the company has moved beyond the experimental phase and is now delivering actual crypto solutions.

11) On February 19, Kraken completed the first fund distribution from the FTX estate, compensating over 46,000 creditors.

Regulatory Updates:

1) On February 17, Argentine President Javier Milei faced fraud charges related to the LIBRA token scandal. The opposition party planned to impeach him, accusing him of promoting a crypto rug pull.

2) On February 17, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) announced plans to issue additional virtual asset trading platform licenses this month, exploring support for custodial and OTC services.

3) On February 17, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) initiated a public consultation on establishing standards for crypto asset advisors.

4) On February 18, U.S. exchange MEMX applied to the SEC for approval of the 21Shares XRP ETF.

5) On February 18, Bullish received a virtual asset trading platform license from Hong Kong.

6) On February 18, it was reported that Musk’s DOGE would be audited by the U.S. SEC for potential fraud, misuse, and waste.

7) On February 19, the U.S. SEC sought public feedback on approving Grayscale and Bitwise Ethereum ETF options trading.

8) On February 19, a FOX reporter indicated that the U.S. SEC is prioritizing crypto litigation cases with nearer deadlines. Former SEC officials suggested that the SEC may soon conclude lawsuits against Coinbase, Binance, Ripple, and other crypto companies.

9) On February 19, the EU approved 10 stablecoin issuers under MiCA, with Tether not included. Japan’s Financial Services Agency approved a new crypto asset regulatory framework.

Other News:

1) On February 17, OpenAI planned to open-source its work, with the CEO seeking proposals online; the board unanimously rejected Elon Musk’s offer to buy the company, stating it wasn’t in the best interest of the company’s mission.

2) On February 18, market reports indicated the U.S. and Russia had agreed to appoint a working group to end the Ukraine conflict.

3) On February 18, Elon Musk officially released the AI model Grok 3, and xAI launched a new AI search engine called Deepsearch.

4) On February 19, Baidu fully launched the DeepSeek full version, introducing NSA for ultra-fast long-context training and inference.

5. Market Outlook

Source: BTCUSDT | FameEX 

From February 20 to February 23, the medium-term trading strategy will still be applied: for the BTC spot, maintain the sell order at $169,400 and the buy orders at $73,970, $59,935, and $45,900, respectively.

The ETH sell order at $5,125, along with the buy orders at $2,040 and $1,730, should remain active.

Risk Reminder: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors are advised to control their positions and implement stop-loss strategies. The above content is for reference only and does not constitute specific investment advice from this exchange.

Disclaimer: FameEX makes no representations on the accuracy or suitability of any official statements made by the exchange regarding the data in this area or any related financial advice.