FameEX Weekly Market Trend | December 26, 2024

1. BTC Market Trend

From December 23 to December 25, the BTC spot price swung from $92,368.9 to $99,598.6, a 7.83% range. 

According to Barron’s, as Bitcoin retraced to $94,000 on Christmas Eve, Yuya Hasegawa, an analyst at Japanese cryptocurrency exchange Bitbank, stated that three key factors will influence the cryptocurrency market in 2025:

Firstly, the direction of cryptocurrency policy under the Trump administration will dominate market sentiment. Trump’s proposed strategic Bitcoin reserve plan, as well as appointments of crypto-friendly individuals, are expected to directly affect the price movements of major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, XRP, and Dogecoin.

Secondly, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy will continue to impact the crypto market. Hasegawa noted that loose monetary policies typically benefit Bitcoin’s price, while the opposite has a negative effect. Although the Federal Reserve (Fed) has cut rates by 100 basis points this year, Trump’s plan to impose 10%-20% tariffs on all imported goods, with tariffs on Chinese products potentially reaching 60%, could heighten inflationary pressures, forcing the Fed to maintain higher interest rates.

Thirdly, the U.S. government’s debt issue may become a new focus for the market. Hasegawa emphasized that the high-interest rate environment will increase the government’s debt burden. If concerns about debt sustainability arise, Bitcoin’s safe-haven properties as digital gold could gain more attention, especially if the U.S. successfully implements the strategic Bitcoin reserve plan, potentially driving Bitcoin's valuation higher.

According to the annual “Web3 Security Report” by blockchain security firm Hacken, losses from security incidents in the DeFi sector decreased by 40% from 2023 to 2024, due to protocol improvements, better bridging, and more advanced encryption measures. Meanwhile, security incidents in CeFi more than doubled, with losses rising to $694 million. The surge in attacks is mainly attributed to access control vulnerabilities and notable events, such as the DMM exchange hack in Q2 and the WazirX hack in Q3, which involved private key leaks and exploits of multi-signature vulnerabilities.

Source: BTCUSDT | FameEX 

The incremental capital in this bull market mainly comes from European and American financial institutions accumulating Bitcoin spot holdings and continuously buying U.S. Bitcoin ETFs and Ethereum ETFs. By the end of the bull market, Ethereum’s price increase may not necessarily surpass Bitcoin’s.

It is recommended to remove sell orders placed at ETH spot prices of $8510, $7840, and $5040, and adjust them to $5125.

As for the buy orders at ETH spot prices of $2,040 and $1,730, and the sell order for Bitcoin spot at $169,400, along with the buy orders at $73,970, $59,935, and $45,900, there is no need to cancel them for now.

2. CMC 7D Statistics Indicators

Overall market cap and volume, source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/

Altcoin Season Index and Bitcoin Dominance: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/

Crypto ETFs Net Flow: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/

CoinMarketCap 100 Index: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/cmc100/

(Used to measure the overall performance of the top 100 cryptocurrency projects by market capitalization on CoinMarketCap)

Fear & Greed Index, source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/

3. Perpetual Futures

The 7-day cumulative funding rates for major exchanges’ mainstream cryptocurrencies are generally positive.

Source: CoinAnk

In the past three days, the BTC contract open interest has remained relatively stable, while the ETH contract open interest has seen a slight increase.

Exchange BTC Contract Open Interest:

Source: CoinAnk

Exchange ETH Contract Open Interest:

Source: CoinAnk

Note: All the above information is provided for reference purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment advice.

4. Industry Roundup

1) On December 23, according to a NERC report, cryptocurrency mining and AI data centers are driving North America’s electricity demand to new highs.

2) On December 23, Trump indicated that Bo Hines would become the Executive Director of the President’s Digital Asset Advisory Committee.

3) On December 23, Musk responded to speculation on “Biden pardoning SBF”: Would be shocked if it doesn’t happen.

4) On December 23, the Financial Times indicated that crypto funds like Brevan Howard and Galaxy Digital significantly outperform traditional funds in annual returns.

5) On December 23, VanEck stated that the Bitcoin reserve strategy could reduce U.S. debt by 35%, offsetting about $42 trillion in liabilities. CryptoQuant Founder stated that paying U.S. debt with Bitcoin is entirely possible, with the only risk being large whale sell-offs.

6) On December 23, a study indicated that Singapore ranks #1 globally for blockchain and cryptocurrency technology, with the U.S. in the 5th place.

7) On December 23, UK Q3 GDP final year-on-year value was 0.9%, expected 1.0%, previous 1.0%.

8) On December 23, Canada’s October GDP monthly rate was 0.3%, expected at 0.2%, revised from 0.1% to 0.2%.

9) On December 24, President Biden signed the 2025 Fiscal Year Defense Authorization Bill, increasing U.S. military spending to approximately $895 billion, a 1% increase from the previous fiscal year.

10) On December 24, UAE’s first cryptocurrency-listed company planned to dual list in the U.S. next year.

11) On December 24, a Coinbase report indicated that the total stablecoin market cap has grown by 48% since the start of 2024.

12) On December 24, Cyvers Alerts stated that crypto sector losses due to hacks and fraud in 2024 exceed $6 billion.

13) On December 24, U.S. Democrats on social media called for Biden to expel Elon Musk, born in South Africa, one month before Trump takes office, due to Musk’s influence over the incoming administration.

14) On December 24, the Philippines SEC released crypto asset management regulations covering disclosure, public offerings, trading, and marketing activities.

15) On December 24, the South Korean acting president issued tax amendments, delaying the crypto asset tax plan for two years.

16) On December 25, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that if economic and price conditions continue to improve, the Bank of Japan must correspondingly raise policy interest rates.

17) On December 25, crypto tax regulations in the U.S., UK, and EU were tightened, requiring investors to be aware of key tax rates and compliance obligations.

18) On December 25, law enforcement revealed details of the May hack of the DMM Exchange by North Korean hackers.

19) On December 25, Russia banned cryptocurrency mining in 10 regions for 6 years.

20) On December 25, Italy’s central bank classified Bitcoin P2P services as “crime-as-a-service”.

21) On December 25, according to TradingView, the ETH/BTC exchange rate has risen by approximately 3.5% over the past 30 days.

Disclaimer: FameEX makes no representations on the accuracy or suitability of any official statements made by the exchange regarding the data in this area or any related financial advice.