FameEX Weekly Market Trend | October 24, 2024

1. BTC Market Trend

From October 21 to 23, the BTC spot price swung from $65,295.26 to $69,472.67, a 6.4% range. 

In the last three days, key statements from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) were as follows:

1) On October 21, Fed’s Waller stated that if the economy aligns with expectations, gradual rate cuts are anticipated.

2)  On October 22, Fed’s Kashkari stated that they are determined to avoid a recession and have observed signs of a weakening labor market, which justified the recent 50 basis points rate cut. He also noted that the neutral rate could be higher than previously anticipated, and if the labor market continues to weaken, further rate cuts may need to accelerate.

Logan indicated that money market rates should be close to or slightly higher than the reserve balance rate.

Schmid preferred a relatively aggressive balance sheet reduction strategy and called for a gradual and cautious rate-cut approach.

Daly indicated that, so far, there are no signs suggesting a halt to further rate cuts.

3) On October 23, Daly stated that the economy is clearly in a better state, inflation has fallen significantly, and the labor market has returned to a more sustainable trajectory.

4) On October 21, ECB Governing Council member Šimkus indicated that if inflation continues to fall, interest rates may fall below the “natural level”, but the outcome of the December meeting is unpredictable.

Governing Council member Kazāks believed that interest rates are still holding back economic growth, and rate cuts cannot promote sustainable growth.

5) On October 22, according to the ECB Report, Bitcoin prices could have any outcome, including reaching as high as $10 million or more.

Governing Council member Kazimír was fully open-minded about the December meeting, with all options still on the table.

6) On October 23, ECB President Lagarde expressed that the ECB would maintain restrictive policy and continue to do so as necessary.

Governing Council member Centeno suggested that interest rates need to be reduced gradually, steadily, and predictably to a neutral level.

Governing Council member Villeroy indicated that there is a risk inflation could fall below the 2% target, especially with weak economic growth. The ECB is not behind the curve, but the risk of cutting rates too late outweighs cutting too early. There is no reason to keep rates at restrictive levels until 2025.

Governing Council member Rehn believed that rate cuts are ongoing, and Europe’s weak economic growth may further reduce inflation.

Board member Panetta indicated that a 50bp rate cut is only necessary if the situation worsens significantly.

On October 22, according to Newsweek, citing South Korean media, Seoul may deploy military and intelligence personnel to Ukraine. A report quoted a South Korean intelligence official, stating that the South Korean government and military are “reviewing a plan to send a suitable number of personnel to Ukraine, including intelligence officers specializing in North Korea and tactical experts”. The South Korean Ministry of Defense announced in a Monday evening press briefing that it would consider supplying lethal weapons to Ukraine with an “open attitude”. Previously, Seoul had only provided humanitarian aid to Kyiv during the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

On October 22, reports from AFP, Yonhap News Agency, and other foreign media indicate that on the 21st, a North Korean representative at the UN rebutted recent claims from the South Korean government that North Korea was sending troops to aid Russia, calling the reports baseless rumors during a session of the UN’s First Committee. Foreign media also reported that South Korea is now considering supplying 155mm artillery shells to Ukraine in response to North Korea allegedly dispatching thousands of soldiers to fight against Ukraine.

The European Commission (EC) has launched a new initiative called the “Trusted Investors Network” to support the growth of Europe’s deep-tech sector. Supported by the European Innovation Council (EIC) Fund, the network brings together a group of investors committed to co-investing in innovative European companies. Comprised of 71 investors, including Bpifrance, Atomico, and Sofinnova, the network oversees assets totaling over €90 billion (approximately $98 billion) and will work closely with the EIC Fund to provide financing for deep-tech startups, including those in the blockchain sector. The EIC Fund has already invested nearly €1 billion (around $1.1 billion) in over 250 startups, and the Trusted Investors Network aims to further boost these co-investments.

A Bank for International Settlements (BIS) report emphasized that major financial institutions are piloting tokenized deposits to enhance settlement efficiency and programmability. However, the shift from traditional finance to tokenization carries risks, including governance and legal framework challenges, as well as credit, liquidity, custody, and operational risks, which may differ from those encountered by traditional market infrastructure. These challenges necessitate thorough assessment by central banks. Despite the potential benefits of tokenization, such as reduced transaction costs and faster settlement times, governance, legal, and liquidity risks remain key concerns for central banks regarding tokenized assets.

According to CrowdFundInsider, James Toledano, COO of crypto self-custody wallet Savl, stated that decentralized finance (DeFi) has the potential to disrupt Visa and Mastercard’s dominance in the European payments market while also reducing Europe’s reliance on U.S. payment systems. Toledano noted that European customers are increasingly seeking solutions like stablecoins to lower risk exposure, reduce fees, and decrease dependence on underperforming technologies. He explained, “I frequently receive USDT payments via the TRX blockchain, convert them to euros, dollars, or pounds, and send them to my bank account. It’s a great cross-border solution.”

Despite Visa and Mastercard integrating DeFi technologies and offering debit card solutions linked to users’ cryptocurrency/stablecoin wallets, Toledano believes DeFi will challenge their dominance by offering decentralized, low-cost payment alternatives. He predicts the future of finance will be built on blockchain, with end users eventually separated from the underlying technology. Toledano emphasized that Europe must develop its own euro-backed solutions and payment technologies to end the monopoly of U.S. tech companies.

Source: BTCUSDT | FameEX 

From October 24 to October 27, keep an eye on ETH spot trading opportunities. Maintain the sell orders at $3,425 and $5,040, as well as the buy orders at $1,730 and $2,040. For the BTC spot, it is recommended to keep the sell orders at $72,120, $79,870, and $96,820. In addition, maintain the buy orders at $36,720 and  $45,900.

2. CMC 7D Statistics Indicators

Overall market cap analysis, source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/

24h trading volume, source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/

Fear & Greed Index, source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/

3. Perpetual Futures

The 7-day cumulative funding rates for mainstream cryptocurrencies across major exchanges are all positive.

Source: CoinAnk

In the past three days, the open interest for BTC and ETH contracts has been slowly declining, as recent market trends have created uncertainty, prompting some investors to enhance their risk management awareness.

Exchange BTC Contract Open Interest:

Source: CoinAnk

Exchange ETH Contract Open Interest:

Source: CoinAnk

Note: All the above information is provided for reference purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment advice.

4. Industry Roundup

1) On October 21, the People’s Bank of China lowered the one-year and five-year loan market quotation rates (LPR) from 3.35% and 3.85% to 3.10% and 3.60%, respectively.

2) On October 21, foreign media reported that Israel had requested the White House to facilitate an end to the war in Lebanon, though it is unlikely that Lebanon or the international community will agree. U.S. Defense Secretary Austin made a surprise visit to Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital.

3) On October 21, the CME requested Treasury Secretary Yellen to help maintain the market dominance of U.S. Treasury bonds. CFTC Chairman Behnam urged Congress to take action on legislation regarding cryptocurrency and election betting.

4) On October 21, People’s Bank of China Vice Governor Lu Lei expressed support for qualified banks from different jurisdictions to participate in the Renminbi Cross-Border Payment System (CIPS).

5) On October 21, BlackRock’s ETF head noted that 75% of Bitcoin buyers are new cryptocurrency enthusiasts from Wall Street. UK pension giant L&G seeks to enter the cryptocurrency tokenization space.

6) On October 21, the U.S. SEC approved multiple spot Bitcoin ETF options for listing on the New York Stock Exchange and the Chicago Board Options Exchange.

7) On October 21, foreign media reported that China plans to levy a “wealth tax” on overseas individuals. Chinese media stated that “global taxation” has always had policy grounds, though enforcement has been limited.

8) On October 21, the COO of Savl stated that DeFi is expected to disrupt Visa and Mastercard’s monopoly in the European payments market.

9) On October 21, a Fed report proposed taxing or banning Bitcoin to address the government deficit, which was met with criticism from industry professionals.

10) On October 22, Forbes suggested that the recent rise in Bitcoin prices could be attributed to market expectations that Trump will win the presidential election in two weeks. Billionaire Bill Miller indicated that advisors would recommend allocating 1%-3% of portfolios to Bitcoin over the next few years.

11) On October 22, the leader of Japan's National Democratic Party proposed a tax reform plan to lower the tax rate on cryptocurrency earnings to 20%. Xu Zhengyu noted that Hong Kong authorities suggested expanding eligible asset categories to include virtual assets, allowing for tax exemptions on such transactions.

12) On October 22, the co-founder of Ripple donated $10 million in XRP tokens to U.S. presidential candidate Harris. Market views suggest that if Harris is elected, she is unlikely to approve ETFs for XRP, SOL, and other cryptocurrencies.

13) On October 22, Paradigm co-founder remarked that stablecoins are the next killer application for cryptocurrency. This is obvious to everyone in the crypto industry, but not necessarily to outsiders, congratulating Stripe and Bridge.

14) On October 22, the Thai Prime Minister announced that additional payments for the digital wallet subsidy would be made in November and December this year. Indonesia has extended the licensing period for cryptocurrency trading platforms and expanded market participation.

15) On October 22, a U.S. court postponed the deadline for Ripple to submit confirmation and notice of appearance related to the SEC lawsuit by 14 days.

16) On October 22, it was reported that India is considering a ban on cryptocurrency while promoting the adoption of a CBDC, the digital rupee.

17) On October 22, a16z founder commented on the birth of GOAT: the first true integration of artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency.

18) On October 23, it was reported that Komainu, a cryptocurrency custody company supported by Nomura Holdings, is undergoing its first acquisition.

19) On October 23, CZ Zhao Changpeng stated that he has only one X account and warned against fake “cz” accounts. Qian Zhimin, the main suspect in a case involving the laundering of 60,000 Bitcoins, denied all criminal charges.

20) On October 23, sources indicated that Harris’s team is considering two candidates to replace SEC Chairman Gary Gensler.

21) On October 23, Trump stated that if he is re-elected as U.S. president on November 5, he will significantly lower interest rates in the U.S.

22) On October 23,  Canada’s central bank announced its interest rate decision of 3.75%, aligning with expectations and reflecting a decrease from the previous rate of 4.25%.

23) On October 23, the IMF maintained its 2024 global growth forecast at 3.2%, while downgrading the 2025 forecast to 3.2% and warning that risks are increasing.

24) On October 23, Bank of England Governor Bailey noted that the market is shifting from liquid assets to overvalued illiquid assets, which could lead to market crashes or panic if conditions reverse sharply. Committee member Greene expressed a preference for a gradual approach to lowering interest rates, stating that the risk of weak consumption may lead inflation to fall below target, necessitating a quicker rate cut.

25) On October 23, Token Unlocks data showed that ADA, GAL, EIGEN, ENA, YGG, FET, and AGIX will experience varying degrees of token unlocks this week.

Disclaimer: FameEX makes no representations on the accuracy or suitability of any official statements made by the exchange regarding the data in this area or any related financial advice.