FameEX Weekly Market Trend | September 5, 2024

1. BTC Market Trend

From September 2 to September 4, the BTC spot price swung from $55,794.06 to $59,736.72, a 7.07% range. Over the past three days, significant statements from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) have been as follows:

1) On September 4, Fed’s Bostic stated that price pressures are quickly and broadly diminishing.

2) On September 4, the Fed Beige Book indicated that employment levels are generally stable, while consumer spending has declined.

3) On September 3, ECB’s Governing Council member Šimkus suggested that the likelihood of a rate cut in October is quite low, but there is a strong case for a rate cut in September.

4) On September 4, ECB’s Governing Council member Kazāks stated that further steps could be taken to lower rates at the next meeting.

New Middle East situation: U.S. President Biden stated that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has not done enough to reach a hostage agreement. In response, Netanyahu said that the pressure should be put on Hamas and reiterated his refusal to relinquish control of the Philadelphi Corridor. Hamas admitted responsibility for the deaths of six hostages, including one American, and hinted that they would execute more hostages if the Israeli military attempted a rescue.

A chief legal officer of a leading exchange expressed concern over the lack of a clear plan from the U.S. SEC for FTX to repay creditors using stablecoins or other cryptocurrencies. Grewal’s comments responded to a document filed on Friday, in which the SEC reserves its rights regarding the approval of FTX Trading Ltd.’s joint bankruptcy protection plan by the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware. On Sunday, Grewal commented on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), stating that the U.S. SEC did not explicitly label this behavior as illegal. He referred to the wording used by the securities regulator in a court filing, where the SEC wrote: “The SEC has not expressed an opinion on this behavior.” Under federal securities laws, the U.S. SEC does not express an opinion on the legality of transactions outlined in the plan but reserves the right to challenge any transactions involving crypto assets.

According to Ledger Insights, Switzerland’s largest cantonal bank and fourth-largest bank, Zürcher Kantonalbank (ZKB), launched cryptocurrency services for its retail and third-party banking clients. ZKB customers can now trade Bitcoin and Ethereum via the bank’s mobile banking app, online banking, and other channels. For cryptocurrency brokerage, ZKB is partnering with Deutsche Börse’s digital asset company, Crypto Finance, which is licensed by both Swiss FINMA and Germany’s BaFIN.

Source: BTCUSDT | FameEX 

From September 5 to September 8, sell orders placed at $4,700 for the ETH spot and buy orders at $1,850 for bottom-fishing do not need to be canceled. Similarly, sell orders for the BTC spot placed at $72,500, $77,500, and $92,000, as well as the buy order at $42,950 for bottom-fishing, should remain as they are. The current bull market is highly likely to end next year. It is recommended to buy other cryptocurrencies during dips and patiently watch if the Fed starts cutting interest rates from the 25th of this month.

2. Blockchain Mastery & Trading Tips

Previously, we discussed capital management in trading systems, highlighting that successful trading is 20% market analysis, 20% capital management, and 60% emotional control. Today, we begin covering market analysis.

Many crypto traders focus only on fundamental and technical analysis, but this isn’t enough. To achieve stable profits, you also need to analyze capital flows and market sentiment. Every price move in crypto, whether in spot prices or futures, is driven by capital. For instance, the relationship between BTC spot price increases and the amount of capital required to push it higher is nonlinear. Simply put, the higher BTC’s spot price rises, the more capital is required to keep pushing it upward. Otherwise, it may lead to price consolidation or a downward trend.

FameEX Weekly Market Trend regularly publishes key short-term data for capital analysis, including “CMC 7-day total market value, 24-hour total trading volume, and BTC/ETH contract open interest over the past three days”.

All other cryptos are considered altcoins relative to BTC, including ETH. BTC is the foundation of cryptocurrencies,  and together with ETH, their combined daily trading volume often reaches or exceeds 75% of the total market’s daily volume. Therefore, BTC and ETH serve as de facto indices for the entire crypto market, with their price movements acting as direct reflections of the broader market sentiment at any given time.

For sentiment analysis, FameEX Weekly Market Trend provides data such as the “CMC 7-day Fear and Greed Index” and “7-day cumulative funding rates of major exchanges”. The “BTC/ETH contract open interest” also serves as sentiment indicators, helping traders decide when to go long or short in contracts. To summarize, market analysis is divided into:

1) Fundamental analysis

2) Technical analysis

3) Capital analysis

4) Sentiment analysis

FameEX Weekly Market Trend provides the latest data for capital and sentiment analysis. In the future, we’ll explore fundamental and technical analysis to help traders better understand crypto market trading.

3. CMC 7D Statistics Indicators

Overall market cap analysis, source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/

24h trading volume, source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/

Fear & Greed Index, source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/

3. Perpetual Futures

In general, the 7-day cumulative funding rates for the popular coins across major exchanges are positive, indicating that long leverages are relatively high.

Source: CoinAnk

In the past three days, both BTC and ETH futures open interest has been slightly increasing.

Exchange BTC Contract Open Interest:

Source: CoinAnk

Exchange ETH Contract Open Interest:

Source: CoinAnk

Note: All the above information is provided for reference purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment advice.

5. Industry Roundup

1) On September 2, South Korea’s inflation slowed more than expected, and its central bank may cut interest rates in October. Hana Financial and SK Telecom acquired 25% and 10% stakes in digital asset custodian BitGo Korea, respectively.

2) On September 2, a U.S. SEC commissioner called for the creation of a specialized S-1 registration form for digital asset securities.

3) On September 2, Nubit released a consumer-grade Minichain construction plan aimed at facilitating seamless integration between Web2 and Web3.

4) On September 2, the crypto market funding in August exceeded $700 million, down 22% month-on-month. Well-known investment firm a16z closed its Miami office due to the crypto market slump.

5) On September 2, a report indicated that Singapore ranks first in the global cryptocurrency adoption index, with five Asian countries in the top ten. Qatar introduced a digital asset regulatory framework.

6) On September 2, Cyber Capital’s founder stated that Most Ethereum L2s are centralized and have the ability to transfer users’ funds without restriction.

7) On September 2, a South Korean man involved in a $12 million crypto scam was arrested after 10 months on the run, aided by plastic surgery. It was reported that South Korea would investigate Telegram for alleged negligence in deepfake incidents. South Korea’s Financial Supervisory Service would inspect six virtual asset service providers, including Upbit.

8) On September 2, a 2024 report found that 96% of NFTs are “dead” due to market instability. NFT sales in August fell below $400 million, hitting a yearly low. Uphold’s CEO indicated that the memecoin boom will only devalue and “destroy” the entire crypto sector.

9) On September 3, the Trump family’s crypto project appointed Dolomite co-founder Corey Caplan as a project advisor. A warning was issued about two Trump family members’ X accounts being hacked, advising users to avoid clicking on links.

10) On September 3, Japan’s Financial Services Agency issued a tax reform request for the fiscal year 2025, mentioning virtual currency transactions for the first time. Signs of further yen interest rate hikes have tempered BTC’s rally. The Governor of BoJ reiterated that they will continue to raise rates if economic and price conditions meet expectations.

11) On September 3, the UN mediated the Libyan central bank crisis, reaching a key consensus among all parties. The Bank of Canada lowered its interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%, marking the third consecutive rate cut, in line with market expectations.

12) On September 3, People’s Court Daily indicated an urgent need for comprehensive judicial guidelines on handling virtual currency cases. China held its first plenary (expanded) meeting of the Interministerial Joint Conference on Preventing and Combating Illegal Financial Activities.

13) On September 3, DeFi analyst Ignas suggested if Solana adopts an L2 scaling model similar to Ethereum, SOL may become the new ETH.

14) On September 3, insiders revealed that OpenAI plans to raise billions of dollars to build the U.S. AI infrastructure. Vitalik said that AI and prediction market technology could accelerate the generation of community notes on X.

15) On September 3, crypto lender Nexo upgraded its compliance measures and reopened registration for UK customers. The UK law enforcement seized $144,000 worth of Bitcoin from a home invasion robbery.

16) On September 4, the U.S. CFTC recovered $18 million worth of crypto from a Ponzi scheme involving a commodity pool. Uniswap Labs settled with the CFTC over an “illegal” margin product.

17) On September 4, DeFi protocol Penpie suspended all deposit and withdrawal operations due to a contract security vulnerability, with approximately $27 million in crypto assets stolen.

18) On September 4, according to a report, traditional payments are expected to generate $4.7 trillion in revenue by 2029, and technologies such as blockchain could significantly improve industry efficiency.

19) On September 4, the U.S. Federal Trade Commission stated that Bitcoin ATM fraud losses exceeded $65 million in the first half of 2024. Gen Digital indicated that crypto scams using AI-generated fake celebrity endorsement videos are on the rise.

20) On September 4, August liquidation volumes on Ethereum hit the second-highest in history. The Ethereum Foundation research team will hold an official AMA the next day at 9:00 PM.

21) On September 4, the UN raised human rights concerns in the case involving Telegram founder Pavel Durov. The CEO of a leading crypto exchange publicly condemned Nigeria for the “inhumane treatment” of a jailed executive.

22) On September 4, the Solana Foundation Executive Director indicated that the ability to coordinate patches does not equate to centralization. Ripple CEO said the stablecoin RLUSD will launch in the coming weeks, and they are “not interested” in listing XRP in the U.S.

23) On September 4, USDT issuer Tether partnered with Thailand’s Mahidol University to incorporate stablecoins and blockchain technology into its curriculum. Tether also partnered with Reku to enhance cryptocurrency education in Indonesia.

24) On September 4, the Sandbox co-founder Sebastien Borget revealed that India has become the largest source of content creators for the metaverse platform.

25) On September 4, this week will see the unlocking of dYdX, Taiko, Immutable, Mode, and Hashflow, with a combined total of $72.55 million.

Disclaimer: FameEX makes no representations on the accuracy or suitability of any official statements made by the exchange regarding the data in this area or any related financial advice.