FameEX Weekly Market Trend | August 26, 2024

1. BTC Market Trend

From August 22 to August 25, the BTC spot price swung from $59,552.34 to $64,994.26, a 9.14% range. 

In the past four days, key statements from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) were as follows:

1) On August 22, Patrick Harker stated that the end of the easing cycle could keep the federal funds rate around 3%, and the U.S. unemployment rate might rise to just below 5%.

2) On August 23, Thomas Schmid said that the revised nonfarm payroll data did not change his policy view. Susan Collins indicated that the time seems right to begin easing monetary policy, with an expectation of gradual rate cuts soon. Harker added that rate cuts should start in September, and not necessarily in 50 or 25 basis point increments. He reiterated that the end of the easing cycle might stabilize rates around 3%, and unemployment could peak at slightly below 5%.

3) On August 24, Raphael Bostic mentioned that the Fed is close to being ready to cut rates and might support more than one rate cut this year, with a long-term federal funds rate projection of 3%. Harker emphasized the need to begin cutting rates, estimating the neutral rate at around 3%, and suggested that unemployment would not exceed 5%. Austan Goolsbee expressed that all conditions for a rate cut have been met, asserting that the Fed’s forecast for rate cuts is likely to be realized, and that the focus should now be on employment rather than the magnitude of rate cuts, with future paths being more critical.

4) On August 25, Jerome Powell delivered a strong message at the Jackson Hole Symposium, signaling that the time for policy adjustments has arrived. He expressed increased confidence in bringing inflation back to 2% and stated that further cooling of the labor market is neither sought after nor welcomed.

5) On August 23, Governing Council member Gediminas Kazakevicius expressed an openness to a rate cut in September, even if inflation remains stable in the coming months. The ECB’s forecast assumes two more rate cuts this year, and there is no reason not to continue with this plan, as the Eurozone’s inflation trends are consistent with the expectation of further gradual rate cuts.

6) On August 24, Governing Council member Olli Rehn supported a rate cut in September, citing falling inflation and weak economic conditions.

7) On August 25, Governing Council member Robert Holzmann remarked that a September rate cut is not a foregone conclusion and cautioned against premature rate cuts.

A user on Dune Analytics created a dashboard titled “Top Fund Investment Performance of 2024”, tracking the year-to-date performance of 11 top venture funds. The data assumes that these funds never sold any tokens from their investments, regardless of the funding round. The findings revealed that, except for Coinbase Ventures, the cumulative return rates of all other crypto venture funds were negative. These funds include OKX Ventures, Pantera Capital, Delphi Ventures, Spartan Ventures, Binance Labs Ventures, IOSG Ventures, Multicoin Capital, Hashkey Capital, Polychain Capital, and Dragonfly Capital. Additionally, the data showed that the main funding areas for these institutions this year were DeFi, Blockchain Infrastructure, and GameFi.

According to data disclosed by IT Orange, the U.S. has produced 49 unicorns in the digital currency/blockchain sector, with 60% of the world’s blockchain unicorns being born or registered in the U.S. Meanwhile, three blockchain unicorns have emerged in the Hong Kong SAR of China. The U.S. remains highly enthusiastic about exploring blockchain, virtual currencies, and new technologies such as AI and brain-machine interfaces. In contrast, China is focused on addressing critical technology issues, encouraging venture investments in hard tech such as semiconductor chips, new energy, and new materials, while completely banning the virtual currency sector.

According to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), Telegram founder and CEO Pavel Durov was arrested in France last Saturday, sparking “outrage” among Russian officials. The Russian Embassy in France issued a statement on Sunday, claiming that French authorities denied their attempts to contact Durov. The statement indicated that after learning of Durov’s detention through media reports, the embassy immediately requested clarification from French authorities and sought to ensure Durov’s rights and provide consular access. However, France has yet to respond to these requests, and the embassy is in contact with Durov’s lawyers. Some Russian officials have described the arrest as an indirect act of hostility towards Russia. There are conflicting reports about Durov’s nationality, with some sources claiming he holds dual citizenship in France and Russia, while others suggest he holds dual citizenship in France and the UAE. 

According to NPR, the Paris prosecutor’s office is expected to address the arrest in a statement on Monday. Telegram issued a statement saying it complies with EU laws, including the Digital Services Act (DSA), and that Pavel Durov has nothing to hide, noting that he frequently travels to Europe. While some media outlets have speculated that Durov could face up to 20 years in prison, the initial reports from French media did not mention this figure. Following Durov’s arrest, several key figures in the crypto industry expressed their support for him, including Elon Musk, Vitalik Buterin (who based his views on the available information), and Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko.

Galaxy Digital’s Head of Research suggested that the French police might charge Telegram with failing to comply with the EU’s DSA. Meanwhile, the French media reported that Durov could face multiple charges related to fraud, money laundering, and terrorism, potentially leading to a maximum sentence of 20 years. A former CIA analyst described the charges as a “fabricated political case”, and the Deputy Speaker of the Russian State Duma called on the Russian Foreign Ministry to secure Durov’s release.

In a previous interview with American political commentator and journalist Tucker Carlson, Durov stated that whenever he visits the U.S., he receives significant attention from the FBI and other security agencies. During his last visit, a cybersecurity officer or agent tried to secretly hire one of his engineers working at Telegram, seeking information on the open-source libraries integrated into the Telegram app and attempting to persuade the engineer to use certain open-source tools as backdoors. Durov mentioned that he has personally experienced similar pressures in the U.S., with two FBI agents greeting him at the airport every time he arrives, asking questions. He believes they aim to establish a relationship to better control Telegram.

Source: BTCUSDT | FameEX 

From August 26 to August 28, it’s recommended to continue observing the market and pay attention to trading opportunities in the ETH spot trading. Specifically, maintain the sell orders at $4,700 and the buy orders at $1,850. For the BTC spot trading, retain the sell orders at $72,500, $77,500, and $92,000, as well as the buy orders at $42,950.

2. CMC 7D Statistics Indicators

Overall market cap analysis, source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/

24h trading volume, source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/

Fear & Greed Index, source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/

3. Perpetual Futures

In general, the 7-day cumulative funding rates for the popular coins across major exchanges are positive, indicating that long leverages are relatively high.

Source: CoinAnk

In the past four days, both BTC and ETH futures open interest has been rising significantly.

Exchange BTC Contract Open Interest:

Source: CoinAnk

Exchange ETH Contract Open Interest:

Source: CoinAnk

Note: All the above information is provided for reference purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment advice.

4. Industry Roundup

1) On August 22, it was reported that nearly half of corporate election spending in the 2024 U.S. election cycle came from crypto companies. Market news indicated that Harris received more donations in 11 days than Biden did during his entire campaign.

2) On August 22, 307 suspects involved in cross-border fraud through “virtual currency” investment platforms in the Wa State region of Myanmar were handed over to China. Chinese police extradited Zhang, a suspect involved in a massive economic crime related to virtual digital currency issuance from Thailand, with the amount involved exceeding 100 billion RMB.

3) On August 22, El Salvador planned to provide Bitcoin-related training and certification for 80,000 civil servants.

4) On August 22, according to Kommersant, Russia planned to establish two cryptocurrency exchanges to support trading, one in Moscow and the other in St. Petersburg.

5) On August 22, OmegaPro co-founder was arrested in Turkey for involvement in a $4 billion cryptocurrency Ponzi scheme. It was reported that the FBI would use NFTs to contact Clucoin crypto scam victims.

6) On August 22, former U.S. President Donald Trump promoted his new crypto project on the Telegram channel “The Defiant Ones”. Trump faced another assassination threat, interrupted a journalist’s questions at a rally, and left the event. Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced he would pause his campaign and support Trump for president.

7) On August 22, an analysis indicated after the Cancun upgrade, the ETH burning decreased by 84% compared to before the upgrade, and the Ethereum revenue fell by 69%. Vitalik Buterin commented that Ethereum’s fundamentals are actually very strong. He also stated that “financialized pseudonymous societies” are not truly effective and that the governance structure needs a more multidimensional identity concept. The intersection between decentralized finance and other decentralized technologies will be very important and needs clear support.

8) On August 22, Kaspersky detected cryptocurrency and Web3 fraud activities planned by Russian-speaking cybercriminals, labeled ”Tusk”. The Russian Federal Security Service accused a scientist of treason for sending cryptocurrency to Ukraine.

9) On August 23, X publicly disclosed its shareholder list, including Binance, a16z, and other crypto and AI-related companies.

10) On August 23, the U.S. Initial jobless claims for the week ending August 17 recorded 232,000, revised from the previous value of 227,000 to 228,000.

11) On August 23, Nomura Securities stated that the South Korean central bank is expected to start a rate-cutting cycle in October, lowering rates to 2.75% by the end of next year.

12) On August 23, a latest report revealed that over 617 million people globally now own cryptocurrency. The Hong Kong International New Economy Research Institute predicted a reshuffle in the virtual asset market, with some non-compliant U.S. businesses and project parties possibly exiting.

13) On August 23, Michelle Bond, a former U.S. Congressional candidate with ties to FTX, was accused of illegally providing campaign donations. FTX stated that creditors support the restructuring plan with a 95% voting rate.

14) On August 24, Fed officials revised down their economic growth forecast for the second half of 2024. The U.S. Department of Labor reported a 1.3% increase in employment population through March 2024.

15) On August 24, Japan’s core CPI for July was 2.7%, meeting expectations, with the previous value at 2.6%. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo stated that the bank is ready to raise rates if economic growth and inflation get on track. Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki Shunichi said the possibility of Japan falling back into deflation cannot be ruled out.

16) On August 24, the Fed’s minutes indicated that Fed officials were strongly inclined to cut rates in the September policy meeting, with some even willing to lower borrowing costs immediately. Major global central bank officials, including the Fed, indicated a firm stance on lowering or continuing to lower rates.

17) On August 24, Polygon’s Chief Information Security Officer reported that Polygon’s official Discord was attacked and advised against clicking on any links.

18) On August 24, it was reported that Tether has assisted 145 law enforcement agencies in recovering $108.8 million in USDT related to illegal activities this year.

19) On August 24, Sony Group was expected to jointly launch the Ethereum L2 network Soneium.

20) On August 24, Jupiter’s founder returned most of the funds to the DAO after the performance on Reddit fell far short of expectations.

21) On August 25, U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis stated that the legislative window for crypto is narrowing, but there is still a chance for some bills to pass this year. A report indicated that Wyoming is advancing crypto payments and a digital dollar.

22) On August 25, Token Unlocks announced on the X platform that between August 26 and September 1, $164.2 million worth of cryptocurrencies will be unlocked, including SUI, OP, ZETA, DYDX, YGG, PRIME, and ENA.

23) On August 25, next Thursday will release the U.S. second-quarter real GDP annualized quarterly rate revision. Next Friday will reveal the Eurozone August CPI annual rate, Eurozone August CPI monthly rate, Eurozone July unemployment rate, U.S. July core PCE price index annual rate, personal spending monthly rate, and core PCE price index monthly rate.

24) On August 25, the ECB minutes indicated that overall inflation is expected to fluctuate around the current level for the rest of the year. The September meeting is widely anticipated to be an opportune moment for reassessing monetary policy restrictions, with service sector inflation being a key factor in the price outlook.

Disclaimer: FameEX makes no representations on the accuracy or suitability of any official statements made by the exchange regarding the data in this area or any related financial advice.