FameEX Weekly Market Trend | May 23, 2024

1. BTC Market Trend

From May 20 to 22, the BTC price swung from $65,819.82 to $71,820.21, a 9.12% range. The increase during this period was mainly due to market expectations that the SEC would approve a U.S. Ethereum ETF on Thursday, May 23. On May 21, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials made various statements: 

• Bostic: No rate cuts expected before Q4.

• Mester: Three rate cuts this year are unlikely; rate hikes may be necessary.

• Daly: No evidence justifies rate hikes; lacks confidence in sustained inflation decrease.

• Barr: Q1 inflation data doesn’t support rate cuts; regulators reviewing crypto-related deposits.

• Governor Jefferson: April inflation data improvement encouraging, but too early to confirm the trend.

• Waller: Monetary policy is sufficiently tight, and data indicates no need for rate hikes; may consider rate cuts by the end of the year if supported by data.

Additionally, in terms of international affairs, recent events have introduced uncertainty in the Middle East. A helicopter carrying high-ranking Iranian officials, including the president and foreign minister, crashed, resulting in all fatalities. The UN General Assembly passed a resolution admitting Palestine as a new member state. Hamas announced that it would abandon the armed struggle against Israel following the establishment of a Palestinian state. These developments bring uncertainty to the future of the Middle East. However, the short-term ceasefire between Israel and Palestine is expected to benefit the continued rise in cryptocurrency markets.

Source: BTCUSDT | FameEX 

From May 20 to May 22, based on the recent performance of major global assets, there is an increased likelihood that the BTC spot daily candlestick chart will follow a downward trend from May 23 to May 26. In addition, on Thursday, May 23, the Fed will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting, and the G7 finance ministers and central bank governors will hold a meeting.

The above screenshot is taken from the “FameEX Weekly Market Trend” report published on May 13. All BTC sell orders at $67,200 have been fully realized. From May 23 to May 26, based on current news, the probability of the SEC approving a U.S. Ethereum ETF appears relatively high, but we need not speculate on the outcome. If approved, the subsequent significant rise in ETH and the influx of funds could easily push BTC prices past $72,500 and even trigger our BTC sell orders at $77,500, securing profits. If not approved, ETH and BTC are likely to decline together, with ETH likely experiencing a much larger drop than BTC. In such a scenario, hitting BTC buy orders at $54,050 and below would not be an unattainable goal, though it will take time to materialize. It is advisable to keep all BTC buy and sell orders in place, especially the sell orders at $72,500 and the buy orders at $54,050.

The Bitcoin Ahr999 index of 1.19 is above the DCA level ($67,450). Therefore, it is wise to hold off on DCA investments in major cryptocurrencies for now and simply observe the market.

Source: OKLink

2. Perpetual Futures

In general, the 7-day cumulative funding rates for the popular coins across major exchanges are positive, indicating that long leverages are relatively high.

Source: CoinAnk

In the recent period, BTC contract open interest has grown relatively slowly, mainly due to the significant increase in ETH contract open interest.

Exchange BTC Contract Open Interest:

Source: CoinAnk

Exchange ETH Contract Open Interest:

Source: CoinAnk

Note: All the above information is provided for reference purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment advice.

3. Industry Roundup

1) On May 20, the Fed planned to relax the proposed capital increase requirements for major banks.

2) On May 20, it was reported that if history repeats itself, the key vote for approval of the Ethereum spot ETF will come from the Chairman of the U.S. SEC, Gary Gensler.

3) On May 20, Ethereum Foundation core researcher Justin Drake became an advisor to the Eigen Foundation, committing to inject profits into the Ethereum ecosystem.

4) On May 21, Arthur Hayes stated if the U.S.-Japan currency swap policy is implemented, it will drive the cryptocurrency market up, and Bitcoin is expected to surge to $1 million.

5) On May 21, a Bloomberg analyst declared that the U.S. SEC may approve the 19b-4 filing for the Ethereum spot ETF as early as Wednesday, local time, raising the probability of approval from 25% to 75%.

6) On May 21, crypto lending institution Genesis reached a $2 billion settlement with regulatory authorities.

7) On May 21, a diamond-handed trader made a profit of 958,580 times by buying and holding PEPE.

8) On May 21, the U.S. SEC requested Nasdaq and the Chicago Options Exchange to adjust the filing for the Ethereum spot ETF.

9) On May 21, Variant Fund’s Chief Legal Officer expressed that if the Ethereum spot ETF is approved, it may signal a significant shift in U.S. cryptocurrency policy.

10) On May 21, Coinbase, along with Match Group, Meta, Kraken, Ripple, Gemini, and GASO, launched a Technical Anti-Fraud Alliance to combat online fraud and financial scams.

11) On May 21, Gala Games founder revealed that GALA Ethereum contract security is collaborating with the FBI and other agencies to track down attackers.

12) On May 22, ECB President Lagarde expressed his confidence that inflation has been controlled. If the inflation path remains unchanged, there is a high likelihood of a rate cut by the ECB in June.

13) On May 22, the UN General Assembly passed a resolution regarding Palestine’s entry into the UN, admitting Palestine as a new member state.

14) On May 22, Trump began accepting cryptocurrency donations, pledging to form a “crypto army”.

15) On May 22, a Bloomberg ETF analyst revealed that Ethereum ETF may only account for 15% of Bitcoin ETF assets.

16) On May 22, according to CoinDesk, the Chicago Options Exchange (CBOE) released a revised filing for Ethereum spot ETF.

17) On May 22, VanEck’s Ethereum spot ETF was added to the list on the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation’s website.

18) On May 22, Fed’s Waller disclosed that if data supports, may consider rate cuts by year-end, no need for rate hikes at present, and the possibility of inflation re-acceleration can be ruled out; Bostic reiterated the need to maintain high rates for a longer period; Daly expected no rate cut before Q4 to ensure that inflation does not rebound.

19) On May 22, ECB President Lagarde hinted at a rate cut in June.

20) On May 22, both the U.S. SEC and the White House opposed the FIT21 cryptocurrency bill.

21) On May 22, a U.S. Senator conveyed that a majority of both parties in Congress support cryptocurrencies.

22) On May 22, ConsenSys CEO pointed out that the approval of the Ethereum spot ETF may lead to Ethereum supply shortages.

Disclaimer: FameEX makes no representations on the accuracy or suitability of any official statements made by the exchange regarding the data in this area or any related financial advice.