FameEX Weekly Market Trend | January 18, 2024

1. Market Trend

From Jan. 15 to Jan. 17, the BTC price swung from $41,720.00 to $43,578.08, with a volatility of 4.5%. The last analysis cited a $43,000 market turning point. For an uptrend, a significant breakthrough and stability above $43,000 are crucial. If a downward trend persists, it is likely to trigger a stampede event to test support near $40,000. The current advice is to enter a long position at $42,000-$42,500, with a stop loss at $41,500. Recent market trends meet expectations, maintaining a range around $42,500. At this time, multiple upward and downward spikes enhance turnover, ensuring stability post-direction determination.

After the January 12-13 drop, the market largely recovered with converging averages and lower daily volume, signaling an impending major direction. A downward move targets $38,000, and its support is crucial. Dropping below without a swift recovery raises concerns for the bull market. Opting for an upward path, breaking and stabilizing above $48,000 paves the way to challenge historical highs. To escape oscillation and sustain an upward trend, the initial step is substantial volume and stability above $43,000. Currently, it’s advisable to establish long positions at $42,000-$42,500. Cautious traders may consider additional long positions after a decisive break above $43,000, maintaining a stop-loss at $41,500.

Source: BTCUSDT | Binance Spot 

Between Jan. 15 and Jan. 17, the price of ETH/BTC fluctuated within a range of 0.05850-0.06017, showing a 2.85% fluctuation. The previous analysis report mentioned that there are likely two ways for a pullback: 1. Gradual decline to around 0.05600. 2. Using time to consolidate around 0.05800, creating an oscillating pattern. If the second scenario occurs, consider adding to positions near 0.05800. If the first scenario unfolds, consider increasing positions around 0.05500-0.05600. In recent days, the trend aligns with the second scenario, oscillating around 0.05800, with the lowest price reaching 0.05850. The ETH/BTC trend currently follows BTC, so consider trading with a similar approach to BTC. It is recommended to consider adding positions near 0.05800, with a stop-loss set around 0.05700.

Source: ETHBTC | Binance Spot 

Based on the overall analysis, the current market is in a period of low-volume oscillation before a major direction is chosen. Capital is constantly flowing, yet there’s no uptick in volume; in fact, it’s on the decline. This is attributed to two factors: 1. Market control by major players, who clear chips and establish technical features ahead of a reversal. 2. Capital influx without resulting in trading activity, as investors await the broader market direction before strategically entering trades. Currently, it is viable to lay low, aiming to maximize profits (entering with a stop-loss in place). For example, the recent upward trends in the Layer 2 sector (OP, ARB, etc.) and the NFT sector (ORDI, etc.) have shown promise. Hodlers with positions can remain calm, set stop-loss orders, and await the overall market’s decision before taking further action.

The Bitcoin Ahr999 index of 0.84 is between the buy-the-dip level ($31,160) and the DCA level ($50,880). Therefore, it is advised to purchase popular coins via DCA.

Source: OKLink

2. Perpetual Futures

In general, the 7-day cumulative funding rates for the popular coins across major exchanges are positive, indicating that long leverages are relatively high.

Source: coinsoto

The BTC and ETH contract open interest both stayed unchanged from major exchanges.

Exchange BTC Contract Open Interest:

Source: coinsoto

Exchange ETH Contract Open Interest:

Source: coinsoto

3. Industry Roundup

1) On January 15, the South Korean financial sector planned to establish regulatory rules for virtual asset mixers.

2) On January 15, Do Kwon appealed the new decision by the High Court of Montenegro to uphold the extradition request.

3) On January 15, Kakao Pay decided to discontinue cryptocurrency services starting from February 16.

4) On January 16, HashKey Group completed nearly $100 million in Series A financing.

5) On January 16, the Thai Securities and Exchange Commission stated no plans to allow local spot Bitcoin ETFs.

6) On January 16, Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan met with the second-largest stablecoin issuer at Davos, Switzerland.

7) On January 17, the Governor of the Reserve Bank of India warned of significant risks in cryptocurrencies, emphasizing the need for capitalizing blockchain technology.

8) On January 17, the U.S. Treasury Department and IRS declared that, before regulations are released, companies are not required to report certain transactions involving digital assets.

9) On January 17, Ripple CEO explored the possibility of conducting an IPO outside the United States.

10) On January 17, Tether submitted a trademark registration application in Russia.

Disclaimer: FameEX makes no representations on the accuracy or suitability of any official statements made by the exchange regarding the data in this area or any related financial advice.