FameEX Weekly Market Trend | September 4, 2023

1. Market Trend

Between Aug. 31 and Sep. 3, the BTC price fluctuated between $25,333.75 and $27,587.51, with a volatility of 8.89%. In the previous analysis report, four reasons implied that the market may not continue its upward trend. The current trend confirms this view as the price consolidates around $26,000 on Aug. 29, returning to its initial range of $25,500 to $26,500. Notably, trading volume exhibits unique patterns, with volume during declines roughly half that of uptrends. In such cases, the likelihood of an upcoming upward trend surpasses a downward one (with special circumstances not ruled out). Last weekend, the market held steady near $26,000, expecting a moving average decline. The current main trend is bearish, so it’s advisable to use the defined range’s upper and lower limits for decision-making. Falling below $25,500 could lead to a drop to $24,000 or lower. To shift the market to a bullish trend, breaking above $28,500 is crucial; otherwise, the bullish outlook won’t prevail.

Source: BTCUSDT | Binance Spot 

Between August 31 and September 3, the price of ETH/BTC fluctuated within a range of 0.06240-0.06350, showing a 1.76% fluctuation. From the 1-hour chart, the current trend is being restrained by the 25-day moving average, and the 99-day moving average is likely to cross above it and continue to push the trend downwards. It is anticipated that the market will continue to move downward soon. On larger timeframes (4-hour and 6-hour), there is a clear lack of volume and momentum in the upward movement, indicating weakness in ETH/BTC. It is wise to stay away from this cryptocurrency in the short term.

Source: ETHBTC | Binance Spot 

Based on overall analysis, the majority of cryptocurrencies in the market have fallen back to their price levels before the Grayscale ruling. The overall market is experiencing a further reduction in trading volume, leading to capital outflows once again. This is closely tied to the fact that BTC currently has a very narrow price range and is consolidating. Apart from BTC, other relatively popular cryptocurrencies generally have higher price volatility compared to BTC. However, there haven’t been many cryptocurrencies generating independent trends (driving market sentiment). Therefore, the overall market improvement ultimately depends on BTC generating enough volatility. For BTC’s bullish or bearish choices and support levels, it is recommended to refer to the analysis provided above and in recent articles.

The Bitcoin Ahr999 index of 0.42 is below the buy-the-dip level ($26,780). Therefore, it is viable to purchase popular coins at current low prices.

Source: OKLink

From the perspective of MVRV Z-Score, the value is 0.39. When the value is greater than 6, it enters the market tops, while a value below 2 indicates that it enters the market bottoms. Currently, the present value exceeds the buy-the-dip range (-0.47-0.06).

Source: coinsoto

2. Perpetual Futures

In general, the 7-day cumulative funding rates for the popular coins across major exchanges are positive, indicating that long leverages are relatively high.

Source: coinsoto

After August 31, the BTC contract interest experienced a significant decline, while there was barely any change in the ETH contract open interest from major exchanges.

Source: coinsoto

Exchange ETH Contract Open Interest:

Source: coinsoto

3. Industry Roundup

1) On August 31, X (Twitter) platform would launch video and audio call functionality.

2) On August 31, Curve went live on Coinbase Layer 2 network Base.

3) On August 31, this year, losses due to vulnerabilities in Web3 platforms exceeded $1.2 billion.

4) On September 1, CME Group surpassed Bybit to become the second-largest Bitcoin futures market.

5) On September 1, the total market cap of BUSD has fallen below $3 billion, marking a more than 70% decline in the past six months.

6) On September 2, Bitcoin and Ethereum quarterly trading volumes hit their lowest levels since 2019.

7) On September 2, whale addresses accumulated a total of $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin in the last two weeks of August.

8) On September 3, Hong Kong police cracked down on a London gold and cryptocurrency investment scam, involving 19 individuals and laundering over HKD 300 million.

9) On September 3, CZ (Changpeng Zhao) stated that in the next bull market, the DeFi sector’s size could likely outperform that of the CeFi sector.

10) On September 3, JPMorgan Chase suggested that following Grayscale’s victory, the SEC might be compelled to approve a spot Bitcoin ETF.

Disclaimer: FameEX makes no representations on the accuracy or suitability of any official statements made by the exchange regarding the data in this area or any related financial advice.