FameEX Weekly Market Trend | May 15, 2023

1. Market Trend

Between May 11 and May 14, the BTC price fluctuated between $25,811.46 and $28,299.15, with a volatility of 8.79%. According to the 1-hour candle chart, BTC experienced a temporary decline of 2.4 percentage points with a volatility of 5.3 percentage points around 01:00 AM on May 11, due to rumors of the US government’s BTC holdings being transferred (later clarified to be false). Subsequently, the price continued to decline until reaching a low point at $25,811. After reaching the low point, there was a rebound in price accompanied by increased trading volume. The 1-hour candle chart closed with a bullish sentiment and consolidated below the $27,000 level. At 11:00 PM on May 14, the price broke through the resistance level of $27,000 and stabilized, indicating signs of a bullish reversal. However, it is still necessary to observe the situation regarding the breakthrough of the strong resistance level of $28,000.

Source: BTCUSDT | Binance Spot 

Between May 11 and May 14, the price of ETH/BTC fluctuated within a range of 0.066057 to 0.067800, showing a 2.6% fluctuation. Looking at the 1-hour candle chart, the ETH’s price trend is relatively stronger compared to BTC. Despite a bearish market environment, the ETH/BTC pair had a decline of less than 1 percentage point since the opening on May 11. After reaching the lowest point, it began to oscillate with an upward trend. However, the overall movement is not robust, requiring further observation.

Source: ETHBTC | Binance Spot 

Overall analysis shows that there are signs of market recovery recently, with BTC surpassing $27,000. Still, this rebound exhibits characteristics of being oversold, necessitating further observation regarding its sustainability. It is crucial to continue observing the performance near strong resistance levels such as $28,000 and $29,000.

The Bitcoin Ahr999 index of 0.73 is above the buying-the-dip level ($22,180) but below the DCA level ($36,220). It is viable to purchase popular coins through DCA.

Source: OKLink

From the perspective of MVRV Z-Score, the value is 0.47. When the value is greater than 6, it enters the market tops, while a value below 2 indicates that it enters the market bottoms. Currently, the present value exceeds the buying-the-dip range (-0.36-0.17).

Source: coinsoto

2. Perpetual Futures

In general, the 7-day cumulative funding rates for the popular coins across major exchanges were positive, indicating that long leverages are relatively high.

Source: coinsoto

In general, there are no changes in the contract open interest of BTC and ETH from major exchanges.

Exchange BTC Contract Open Interest:

Source: coinsoto

Exchange ETH Contract Open Interest:

Source: coinsoto

3. Industry Roundup

1. 1) On May 11, there was speculation that 9,819 BTC had been transferred from a Bitcoin address allegedly linked to the US government. However, subsequent clarifications confirmed that no such transfer took place.

2. 2) On May 11, the market share of cryptocurrency derivatives reached a historical high.

3. 3) On May 12, the cumulative minting fees for Ordinals surpassed $32 million.

4. 4) On May 12, MetaMask rolled out a feature enabling users in the United States to purchase Ethereum using PayPal.

5. 5) On May 12, Zimbabwe issued a gold-backed digital currency worth 14 billion Zimbabwean dollars.

6. 6) On May 13, Binance voluntarily announced its withdrawal from the Canadian market citing regulatory issues.

7. 7) On May 14, Bitcoin’s market capitalization continued to cyclically increase.

8. 8) On May 14, the overall network hash rate of Bitcoin reached 357.98 EH/s, returning to its historical high.

9. 9) Since April 1, the ARK Fund has reduced its holdings of GBTC by over $1.2 million.

Disclaimer: FameEX makes no representations on the accuracy or suitability of any official statements made by the exchange regarding the data in this area or any related financial advice.