FameEX Hot Topics | Bitcoin ETFs on Track to Exceed 1M BTC with Expected November Tailwinds

The United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are nearing a historic milestone, poised to collectively hold 1 million Bitcoins potentially within this week, as the cryptocurrency community gears up for potentially favorable conditions in November. This enthusiasm is driven by several key events, including the U.S. elections, anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, and Russia's recent lifting of its Bitcoin mining ban.

As of now, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively hold approximately 976,893 Bitcoins, valued at over $66.2 billion. This accounts for nearly 5% of Bitcoin’s $1.34 trillion market capitalization, according to data from Apollo and SoSoValue. To reach the 1 million Bitcoin mark, these ETFs require an additional $1.55 billion in net inflows, equivalent to purchasing about 23,107 Bitcoins at current prices. Achieving this would necessitate an average of $301 million in daily net inflows throughout this week.

Recent investment trends point to a robust influx, with Bitcoin analyst Alessandro Ottaviani noting that $3 billion has flowed into these ETFs in just the past two weeks. Ottaviani predicts that if this investment trend continues through November, reaching all-time highs in Bitcoin’s valuation is "inevitable." Historically, Bitcoin prices have surged several months after a halving event, with the latest occurring in April 2024. The upcoming U.S. presidential election on November 5 is also expected to significantly influence Bitcoin’s value trajectory.

In 2020, following the May halving event and President Joe Biden’s election victory, Bitcoin surged nearly 43%. CK Zheng, chief investment officer at ZX Squared Capital, suggests that similar market dynamics could unfold this year regardless of the election outcome.

Henrik Andersson, chief investment officer at Apollo Capital, highlights the potential market impact of the election results, particularly if Donald Trump secures a victory. Andersson theorizes that a Trump win could push Bitcoin’s price to reach $100,000 by year's end, potentially setting a new all-time high and drawing significant global attention.

The Federal Reserve's meeting on November 6-7 also plays a crucial role, with the CME Group’s Fedwatch tool indicating a 94.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate decrease. Such a rate cut is expected to alleviate financial pressures on consumers and positively influence the markets in the short term.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this section is for informational purposes only, doesn't represent any investment advice or FameEX's official view.